WARNING: I HAVE ABUSED HYPHENATION AND THE USE OF "..." (THREE-DOT SUSPENSE PUNCTUATION) THROUGHOUT THIS POST. WHILE I GENERALLY DO BELIEVE IN MODERATION, SOMETIMES THE BOY IN ME FEELS THAT LIBERALIZED PUNCTUATION IS ONE OF THE FEW FREEDOMS LEFT TO US IN THIS INCREASINGLY REGULATED AND LITIGIOUS SOCIETY. Dear Friends:
When I was an undergraduate in college, I studied Economics and Public Policy.
On of my professors, who, at that time was also a Director of CHASE MANHATTAN BANK (before the days of J.P. MORGAN CHASE and other enormous, incredibly ill-conceived and headless multi-merger end-products which have established an oligopoly on financial services and the institutional capital markets, and which have subsequently unabashedly hamstrung the U.S. and World economies with their overcompensated incompetence), told us a
Tale of two economists:
The first one said..."In the long-run, there is no unemployment."
The second one said..."In the long-run, we're all dead."
The first chap was a theorist, the second was a pragmatist.
The worlds of economy, capital markets and employment have become very, very battered, and I strongly suspect that this battery will get worse before it gets better. Unemployment is rising, and credit markets (including those credit cards that consumers have been using to an increasing degree to overextend themselves through buying overpriced items which they cannot afford, but which they just 'cannot live without', and incurring a growing burden of debt service payment obligations with every passing month) are contracting. Smells to me like a recipe for a depression. Other truly articulate pundits call it an "adjustment," or "a tough reckoning," both of which terms I call "euphemisms" (as I never have written a post with the word "bullshit" in it, and would never do so).
Doors are closing rapidly. Formerly conventionably-employed middle class and upper middle-class folks are out of jobs. Two-income families (the growing norm in the western world) are becoming no-income families. Homes are being foreclosed. Credit card lines are being pulled back, like the reins on a team of runaway horses...people are afraid of being homeless and hungry. People have lost faith in their governments and in their most respected institutions. They do not see an end to this crisis of newly-minted, free fall poverty that engulfs us like a shroud. They have lost faith and hope. They were unprepared for a crisis of these proportions, and their
ability to innovate and adapt has atrophied from a long-term lack of use. Observe:
A picture of a breadline (no matter how well-dressed the people are) always frightens me, as it must frighten you. It reeks of increasing dependencies, personal degradation and bad times.
All of the foregoing is the "bad news" component of this article. Following (to support my case) are two bits of information: The first is from the
NEW YORK TIMES, (a publication which always predicts the past with perfect accuracy, and show keen insights into the obvious), and the second is an item of personal correspondence to me regarding THE DISCOVER CARD, a company with which I have a very minor business affiliation. Read both, and
then I'll cheer you up -- I promise.
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Breaking News Alert ---
The New York Times
Friday, December 5, 2008 -- 8:38 AM ET
Unemployment Rate Rises to 6.7%
"New figures from the Labor Department show a much sharper worsening of employment conditions than economists expected. Some 533,000 nonfarm jobs were eliminated in November, the most in one month since the mid-1970s, and figures for the prior two months were revised upward by 199,000. The unemployment rate rose two-tenths of a point to 6.7 percent in November; it would have been even higher if large numbers of discouraged workers had not given up looking for work.
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Important Notice for Discover Business Card Affiliate Partners:
Due to the recent economic downturn, Discover Business Card has made some changes to its lending criteria. After applying for a Discover Business Card, applicants may now be asked to provide additional information in order for Discover to make a credit decision. These changes will have an impact on the Discover Business Card approval rate and therefore you may likely see the overall conversion rate for the product decline. These changes were made in mid-November. We encourage you to continue promoting the Discover Business Card and as always we appreciate your feedback.
Regards,
Mike Tabasso
Andy Cantos
Discover Affiliate Managers
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As promised (and I never fail to deliver on a promise unless I had simply lied in the first place, and never meant it), here is the good news:
Old doors have closed, but new ones are opening. A capsule summary follows.
1. While people are shopping less due to declining disposable incomes, they are doing a greater proportion of their shopping on line. If you sell via computer, and have a provision for e-commerce, and if you serve a specialized market, you will be taking market share away from a number of the big stores. Seize this opportunity to grow. Publicize yourself. Get the word out. Build a colossal mailing list. And remember: while you live in cyberspace, the real estate is very, very inexpensive;
2. Self-help, personal growth and educational businesses are becoming more in demand. People are re-examining themselves, their lives and their decisions and are looking for new strengths to become more resilient, optimistic and malleable in facing more future uncertainty;
3. Selling in smaller denominations (less dollars or other payment expended per average order) is becoming very desirable. Smaller ticket sales offering of lead items are becoming increasingly magnetic;
4. If you have capital, or have access to non-institutional equity capital (e.g., a group of friends who can pool their money), there are tremendous "fire sale" bargains to be bought in virtually every market.
5. Besieged, overextended creditors are increasingly willing to make concessions (like easier payment schedules, for example) in order to accommodate overburdened borrowers. These creditors, generally speaking, would prefer to see you either pay off a loan at a substantial discount, or to make smaller but continuous payments, than to have to recategorize your loan as either defaulted or not-performing on their books. Their pomposity is shriveling as their frustrations and feelings of imminent disaster (i.e., being fired from their previously work-free jobs) are steadily growing.
These next three years, in my humble opinion belong to networkers, Internet marketers, team-formers, innovators, and entrepreneurs.
A crisis can be transformative...and, while transformation can be intensely challenging, it can be delightfully profitable. Do not focus on the clouds -- focus on a better way to market umbrellas.
Faithully,
Douglas Castle
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